The Title of this Post

Tonight. Lost. “Confirmed Dead.”
9/8c. ABC.

Before we get to the preview, let me prove once and for all that Maggie's an even bigger LOST nerd than I am (this is from iChat from yesterday, she's on the left, I'm on the right):

Notice the Kate Austen chat icon and that she worked LOST and Ash Wednesday into the same topic. And yes, my icon is a Dharma logo. Anyway, let’s talk about tonight…


Desperate Times. Desperate Measures.
If ever there was a character who embodied that adage, it’s John Locke. Blowing up submarines. Knifing parachutists. Aiding and abetting the murder of his father. Torching polar bears. Not pushing the buttons in the Swan Station. Rarely do the ends not justify the means for Locke, especially if the means have anything to do with protecting, understanding or honoring the Island.

Right now, Locke believes that Jack is out of his mind and Ben is out of touch (not to mention out of commission, on account of being tied up by Frenchie). With the traditional bastions of Island leadership rendered helpless (according to Locke, at least), Johnny boy will probably start feeling the burden to step up.

Last week set the stage for just such an occasion. Locke fractured the survivors into two parties, pitching himself as the “Come with me if you want to live” candidate (is it too early to chant “Barack and Locke in ’08?”). Additionally, Locke tends to be more proactive than reactive. He blew up the submarine before Jack could use it to get away. He tried to kill Naomi before she could contact the freighter. I’d count on Locke making a bold move tonight. His back is against the wall, with the sanctity of the Island at stake. So this is no time for him to sit and wait for a fight to come to him. It’s his time to draw a line in the sand.

When we first met Locke, his thought process was pretty linear: We need food? I’ll hunt. But over time, he’s learned that the golden ticket to Island supremacy necessitates the manipulation of those on it. Case in point, last season’s usage of Sawyer to kill Anthony Cooper, which Locke orchestrated in order to gain the respect of Ben & Company. He’s learning to hit people where it hurts. As Ben Linus once said, “I find out what he’s emotionally invested in, and I exploit it.” Locke may not like Linus, but he’s smart enough to follow the lead of the Island’s supposed supreme ruler. He agrees with Ben’s methods, just not his madness.

Now Locke’s enemy is the freighter crew. With more of them presumably arriving shortly, we could maybe expect John to use something about a member of the crew (or the crew member himself) as leverage. (again, taking a page out of the Others book, specifically the chapter titled, “How to make an angry father turn against his friends by promising him a reunion with his telepathic son.” That chapter is followed by, “How to cope with telepathic children who completely progress through puberty in one month.”) The first parachutist found a welcoming party in Jack and Kate. The next freighter daredevil might not be so lucky if they crash land in a John Locke sweat lodge. Keep an eye on it. Locke’s usually a few steps ahead of most people (spoiler alert: he predicts the Giants unlikely Super Bowl XLII win in Season 5), and his actions in the early part of Season 4 may clue us into his master plan for Operation: Fight the Freighter Folk.

If I Had a Boat, I’d Go Out On The Ocean
Somebody name that song lyric. Mom, if you’re reading this (and I’m sure you are), I know you know this one.

Boats are neat (Damn, I’m a good writer). They have (somewhat predictably) been catalysts for Island plot development for years, even before Oceanic 815 crashed there. A boat brought Rousseau and her crew. A boat brought Desmond. A submarine transported Others to and from the Island. The Black Rock is a ship. A boat lured Kelvin (and then Desmond) out of the Swan Station, at which point it is presumed an electromagnetic anomaly occurred that crashed Oceanic 815. And we all know how that turned out… kind of. Now, depending on who you ask, the freighter presents either a threat or a new hope to those on the Island.

For me, the origins of this boat are of central importance. If Ben’s right, the people on it are “representative(s) of some people who’ve been trying to find this Island… the bad guys.” Maybe I’ve lost it (pun alert!), but I think I believe Ben here. No, really. The whole Oceanic Six secret, Naomi’s misleading statements, the fact that I would believe John Locke on anything, even if he told me something crazy, like, “Sheryl Crow is talented.” It all makes me think that Ben really is telling the truth, at least about the “representative(s) of some people who’ve been trying to find this Island,” part. Whether or not they’re the “bad guys” remains to be seen.

Naturally the follow-up question is, “Who are the people on the freighter ‘representatives’ of?” Insert Widmore Industries/Paik Industries conspiracy theory here. I’ve also talked to a lot of people who’ve suggested that the freighter crew represents the original Dharma Initiative, or perhaps their sugar daddy, the Hanso Foundation. Or maybe they really were sent by Penny Widmore. And maybe it’s some mix-and-match combination of those theories. Or (d) none of the above. I’d like to find out sooner or later. But this is LOST, so we’ll probably have to wait.

Here’s the other thing I’ve mulled over in regards to the S.S. Not Penny’s Boat: are the people on it in charge of their overall mission, mere pawns within it, or somewhere in between? How much do they really know about what they’re doing? Will this be a situation like we had with the Others, where a very stratified system kept many people in the dark and led to the questioning of Ben and/or Jacob? I loved that dynamic, but I doubt they’ll recycle it. I think some people of great importance will be on the boat, mixed with lower level peons (such as Naomi). I kind of think they’d have to be, because this freighter crew probably won’t be able to communicate with the outside world, and will need higher-ups on board to make important decisions, such as, “Should we only let 6 people leave the Island, and then make those 6 lie about the rest of the survivors?” (answer: yes).

Titular
That’s like my favorite word ever.

I’ve written many a LOST preview on this blog. Often, I overlook the very obvious step of predicting what clues the title of the episode might hold. Tonight’s episode is titled, “Confirmed Dead,” which is intriguing for a number of reasons, especially when you remember Naomi’s eerie declaration from Season 3, when she informed Hurley that in the real world, Oceanic 815 had been found and there were no survivors. In other words, all our LOSTies are – according to the outside world – confirmed dead.

We also pretty much know that the Oceanic Six is, for some reason, perpetuating the myth that the rest of their traveling buddies were killed in the crash.

We don’t know why, but it is important to somebody, somewhere that at least a majority of the Oceanic 815 are “confirmed dead” in the minds of the general public. Followers of the Find815 saga will also point out that this confirmation of death is being challenged by some in the real world.

So knowing the title of the episode and gathering my thoughts about what we know so far, the wishful thinker inside me would guess that, if we’re lucky, we may find out a little more tonight about “why” the Oceanic Six is being forced to falsely confirm the deaths of their fellow castaways. That, or we get a little insight into why Naomi told Hurley that they were all confirmed dead. Of course, there’s always the very likely possibility that I’m completely wrong on all counts.



There you have it. Watch. Enjoy. And tune in tomorrow at the Dharma Blog for Maggie’s most excellent review of “Confirmed Dead.”

Namaste.
.charlie