(Prev) You're Gonna Die, Charlie.

LOST: “Greatest Hits” - A Charlie Episode.
Tonight. 10/9c.

Tonight's episode is called Greatest Hits. Did you know Smashmouth has a Greatest Hits album? Seriously. Are you freakin’ kiddin me? Smashmouth. Greatest Hits. That assumes that (a) they have had songs that didn’t totally suck and (b) there were enough of them to constitute a whole album. I hate Smashmouth so much. In fact, as any close friend of mine knows, they are on what I not-so-affectionately refer to as my “Six Bullet List,” a morbid term that refers to the six bands/musical artists I would not hesitate to use a bullet on. Here, in reverse order (from sixth-most hated to all-time most hated) is the rest of that list.

6. Smashmouth
5. The B-52s
4. Shaggy
3. Sean Paul
2. Lenny Kravitz
1. Sheryl Crow

Make no mistake, Sheryl Crow. I straight up hate you.

Okay, now that you know that important tidbit of information about yours truly, it’s time to discuss this week’s episode. Here we go…


Charlie’s “FATE”
Fate. On LOST, the concept is heavily-tilled ground. We’ve examined it closely in the stories of Locke, Desmond and even Eko. It’s also a prevalent, over-arching, guiding principle of the story of LOST. Most recently, we have seen Desmond deal with fate very directly. His visions of the future have left him pondering his role, and specifically whether or not his efforts to alter his present have consequences on his future. One of Desmond’s primary recurring premonitions: the untimely death of young Charlie Pace (one of my favorite characters, by the way. I mean come on, we have the same name!).

For weeks we have dwelled on Charlie’s fate. Ever since Desmond handed down his death sentence in “Flashes Before Your Eyes” (one of the best episodes of this season, I might add), we have cringed at every perilous situation Charlie has encountered. Yes, the death of DriveShaft's (click on DriveShaft there, they have a MySpace page - very weird) bassist seems inevitable, right? Right? Not so fast.

Let me begin by saying that if I were a betting man, I’d put some money down on Charlie’s demise going down tonight. It’s been predicted in the plot, tonight is Charlie’s back story (a classic indicator of death) and you have to believe that there’s only so long one can outrun fate. But when have LOST writers ever allowed a plot element as grave as a main character’s death to unfold so predictably? Deaths on this show (Nikki and Paulo’s excluded) usually take us by surprise, and seem to post a big Dead End sign square in the middle of logical storylines (ain’t that right, Libby?). So there’s a “student of LOST history” side of me that has trouble believing they would kill off Charlie when so many people expect it to happen. Then again, it would be very much in the writers’ character to kill off a character the second people begin second-guessing their predictable death.

But you can’t kill a Charlie Pace with a mere accident. Or a gun shot. Or a Smokey encounter. Okay, maybe a Smokey encounter. But the “Charlie fan” in me wants to believe that Charlie will go out with a bang, of sorts. We have watched the progression of a character whose experiences span that spectrum of misdeed and redemption that so poignantly characterizes LOST. Remember Charlie’s initial modus operandi? It was rescue. Pure rescue. Then he seemed to settle into an acceptance mindset, even going so far as to write the word “Fate” on his fingers, as if he were putting his life in the hands of a higher presence. Later, he changed the “F” to an “L”, seemingly reverting back to his playfully realistic pre-Island self. But look at this story arc. A guy who only ever wanted to make music and please his family was led down a path into drug addiction, unfathomable stardom and, ultimately, abandonment by his family and loved ones and the disintegration of his beloved band. When the plane crashed, he was huddled over the toilet, desperately gathering the remnants of his heroin addiction in an attempt to escape his own tragic “fate”, or “lot in life” as it were. Then the plane crashed, he battled with his addiction, he lost his guitar, he fell for a girl who wanted nothing to do with his vice and he was left living out an existence with no light at the end of the tunnel. For Charlie, that light was escape: not just from the island, but also from the depths of his own sorry state. For Charlie, that light symbolized redemption; it symbolized reconciliation with his brother, Liam, and an end to his drug-riddled lifestyle. Charlie’s home was his family and his music. And all he ever really wanted was to go home. The light at the end of the tunnel dimmed, that is until John Locke made his move. He helped Charlie overcome his addiction (eventually), and in the process reunited Charlie with his guitar, giving the lad a much-needed reminder of what his life could be (and had been). After taming his personal demons and reconnect with Claire, earning back both her trust and his sanity. And he has Locke to thank for a lot of that – interestingly enough, John was able to step in and be the father/older brother figure that Charlie needed, despite John’s own family issues. Once Locke stepped in, the light at the end of thee tunnel reappeared for Charlie.

So take that into consideration and ask yourself: can they really kill Charlie? As heartbreaking as it may seem, the answer is, “Yes. They really could.” But they can’t do it without one last hurrah. Charlie knows he is doomed, and as his trust in Desmond grows, so does his obligation to destiny. That mounting obligation could very well lead him to one last dance: a sacrifice to the Island, a sacrifice of himself, and the last act of a man on a mission of redemption. Yes, this is probably Charlie Pace’s last night. But hopefully (for Charlie, fans of Charlie and those who sympathize with his plight), he will die in an effort to save the people he now calls family (Papa Locke, Wifey Claire, Son Aaron, Brother Hurley, Uncle Jack and Crazy Uncle Desmond). Charlie must die only in an effort to protect the Survivors. And whatever that translates into on the Island tonight is going to be a very intense, very authentic moment.


Battle Plans
Military success is contingent on frontline soldiers being able to respect those in charge (hear me, W?). No, this blog did not just transform into a left-wing rant factory. Rather, I’d like to take some time to examine the “escalating sectarian and regional tensions” on The Island.

Let’s see. We have two sides that misunderstand (and underestimate) each other. They both feel they have a right to a certain plot of land. They both have strong leaders who have personal beef with each other (Ben and Jack). They both believe that their current situation is a make-or-break survival scenario. In short, trouble’s a brewin’ down at the ole’ well. In the same way that the assassination of Arch Duke Francis Ferdinand served as the catalyst to World War One, the pseudo-treachery of Juliet could initiate a domino effect of Island warfare. Think about it. The Others trust Juliet, they believe she’s on their side. The Survivors don’t trust her and believe she’s still aligned with The Others. Both sides are wrong. Juliet is more than willing to betray The Others if it will increase her chance of escape – especially because to do so would help her feel redeemed for the way she was treated by them. And The Survivors, I believe, must overcome their distrust of Juliet and realize that she is angry enough at The Others to be a tremendous ally. Whatever side realizes Juliet’s true intentions first is going to have a huge leg up on the competition.

Enter Jack. The former Golden Boy of the Survivors, whose approval rating was at times higher than Charlie Pace after a bender. But the Survivors’ distrust of The Others is so strong that Jack’s Othersville vacation has rendered him untrustworthy and suspicious. And he certainly didn’t help his cause by canoodling (did I just say ‘canoodling”? Dear God.) with Juliet, whom the Survivors’ don’t trust as far as they can throw (which isn’t very far, because Juliet knows karate. And you just can’t throw a black belt too far without them turning around, mid-air, and delivering a devastating scissor kick to the head). Since his return to the beach, Jack’s leadership has been, at best, laissez-faire. He seems detached from his fellow castaways and content to confide in Juliet. It has gone so far that the Survivors did not trust him with the discovery of Naomi (the parachutist), a finding that he would’ve been the first to hear about if this were an earlier season. But it seems as if he’s on the cusp of redemption. His revelation last week that he knew of the plot against the Survivors – and was merely biding his time and weighing his options – could restore faith among some of Jack’s more loyal supporters. And with their support, more stalwart opponents like Sayid , Sawyer and Kate could soon follow.

On The Other side, Ben is experiencing a similar level of disapproval among his own people. His obsession with the fertility problem seems to have blinded him to bigger problems on the Island, and that has ruffled the feathers of a few in his tribe. Richard was so upset with Ben that he gave Locke the key to upending him: Sawyer’s story. Once Locke was in possession of that, it was easy to make sure Cooper would be killed, and thus Locke would have the leverage he needed to challenge Ben’s authority and learn some vital secrets. Now Locke and Ben seem to be competing in a World’s Creepiest and Most Spiritually Connected to the Island contest (by the way, the score after two rounds of that contest is 1-1. Locke gets 1 for hearing (and seeing?) Jacob, Ben gets one for shooting Locke. Locke’s theme song is now, “Shot through the heart. And you’re to blame. You give creepy island fantasy lands a bad name.”) And now, Ben is being questioned by his people in terms of his leadership, knowledge, connection to the Island and foresight. Burn. He better do something to earn their trust/respect/fear soon, or they won’t stand a chance – maybe that’s why he shot Locke.



And with that “State of the Island” speech in mind, we turn our attention to the matter at hand: War of the Worlds, Island Edition. The Others are coming, apparently with the mission of “rescuing” the pregnant women. The Survivors are waiting, apparently with the intention of “protecting” the pregnant women in the interest of sparing them the fate of (what I like to call) the Worst OBGYN Clinic Ever. As the loving brother of a pregnant woman (Hi, Karen!), I understand the protective instinct of the Survivors. They don’t know what’s best for the doomed Island pregos (yeah, that’s a medical term), but they seem to believe that The Others aren’t it. And who can blame them? A 100% mortality rate? Not exactly the kind of people you want to trust without a second (and third, fourth, fifth and sixth) opinion.

But the question becomes: how do the Survivors protect The Others? The Others are paramilitary killing machines – just ask The Dharma Initiative. The Survivors are merely a random group of people. Then again, the Survivors have Sayid, who can throw you up in the air and kill you five times before you hit the ground. (“My name is Sayid Jarrah, and I am a torturer.” Oh yes, my friends, it’s throw-down time.)


Outsiders?
As we near the end of this season, I am really interested in what has happened to a few characters that have been (either accidentally or purposely) marginalized. There are some people we haven’t seen in a while, and I wonder if they will factor back into the show soon. Here, with minimal inside knowledge, are the odds on a few characters returning to get some face time (either on the Island or in a flashback).

• Michael 50:1. Come on! Did they make it home? Are they helping with rescue? How many times did Michael look proudly at his son before staring off at the horizon on the trip home? That was, like, his favorite move.
• Walt 45:1. Okay, if Walt comes back I’m gonna lose my mind. He was always one of my favorites, and I felt we were cheated out of his story a little bit. There’s a lot that was left unexplained about his time with The Others, and damn it, I want to know.
• Penny 12:1. For all of our sakes, especially mine, let’s hope Penny comes back. If not to the Island, then maybe they show her conducting the Desmond search. Maybe she has to conduct it from Offutt Air Force Base in Omaha and while there she falls for a dashing young ad man from Lincoln, whose name she pronounces in that cheeky Scottish accent. Yep. I think those odds just increased.
• Rose and Bernard 5:1. Where are these two?! Was there any reason they were written out of the rest of this season, other than the Bernard’s general awkwardness? I mean shit, Rose’s cancer was cured by the Island, where is she?

I can’t do odds on dead people (it’s a rule… that I just made up because I didn’t want to do any more odds), but that doesn’t mean it’s not a distinct possibility. We’ve seen deceased castaways appear in dream sequences, flashbacks and hallucinations throughout this show, so don’t rule it out – especially with the finale coming up.

Let’s look at our departed brothers and sisters, with my probable reaction to their return in quotes after each name:

• Boone (“Eh”)
• Shannon (“Where’s the mute button?”)
• Ana Lucia (“Seriously?”)
• Libby (“Cool! Explain what the hell was up with you in that mental hospital with Hurley!”)
• Eko (“Oh hell to the hell to the hell to the hell yeah.”).

I don’t know if any of the living or dead (or soon to be dead?) characters will appear in the show anytime soon, but bringing someone back from the dead is always a good curveball. And it’s that special time of the year where the writers start pulling out things that make you realize that this whole time, you’ve only been looking at a very small piece of the picture. Watch closely.

Greatest Hits: A Haiku.
Goodbye, Dear Charlie.
If you see Jerry Falwell
You’re in a bad place.



Only two weeks left, time to finish strong. Enjoy tonight’s episode!
Charlie.